Apocalyptic Bias

We humans tend to think that things will continue as they have in the recent past, while also at the same time worry about an unforeseen catastrophe. This worry is what I am calling the Apocalyptic Bias. Imagine a glass of water. The traditional cliché is that the optimist will say it is half full while the pessimist will say it is half empty. Someone infected with the Apocalyptic Bias will say, "The water is fluoridated, we are all gonna die." It is just the way they look at the world. I have concluded that they can't help it. (This is not to say that water should be fluoridated. The US is the only country that adds this toxic poison to the water, directly impacting our precious bodily fluids.) 

Our precious economic bodily fluids are in danger! At least that is the accusation hurled at David Stockman's new book—The Great Deformation.  Both left and right are not happy with him. Paul Krugman called him a cranky old man. Well, he is old. He is cranky. He is a man. But is he a correct cranky old man? Here is a quote from his introduction to the book:

The real reason for the current crisis of debt and financial disorder is that public policy had veered into the ditch, permitting an unprecedented aggrandizement of the state and its central banking branch. In the process, the vital nerve center of capitalism, its money and capital markets, had been perverted and deformed. Wall Street has become a vast casino where leveraged speculation and rent seeking have displaced its vital function of price discovery and capital allocation.

If you have been reading me here, this is pretty much what I have been saying. So is David Stockman infected with the Apocalyptic bias? Maybe. But then again I may be as well. 

Let me give you an example of the Apocalyptic Bias from the Bible. Matthew 24 from the KJV says this:

⁴ And Jesus answered and said unto them, Take heed that no man deceive you.

⁵ For many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and shall deceive many.

⁶ And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.

⁷ For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.

⁸ All these are the beginning of sorrows.

I do not know how many times I have heard verse 7 preached that the current world affairs are proof that the end times are near. This is the Apocalyptic Bias in action for Matthew 24 is actually saying the opposite. Here is this same passage from the Message. 

^4-8 Jesus said, “Watch out for doomsday deceivers. Many leaders are going to show up with forged identities, claiming, ‘I am Christ, the Messiah.’ They will deceive a lot of people. When reports come in of wars and rumored wars, keep your head and don’t panic. This is routine history; this is no sign of the end. Nation will fight nation and ruler fight ruler, over and over. Famines and earthquakes will occur in various places. This is nothing compared to what is coming.

Someone with an Apocalyptic Bias is going to go away from a reading of Matthew 24 with a different understanding than someone who is not infected by this bias. 

In the same way someone with the Apocalyptic Bias will see a lot of doom on the horizon. The joke about such people is that they have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions. 

Is Stockman an example of this? I will give my review later but I will share some interviews Stockman has given recently over the last few weeks so you can decide for yourself. In the meantime here is a Monty Python version of the Apocalyptic Bias.